Kvě 06

Twitter and Google Trends Interest Precedes Cryptocurrency Price, Study Finds

The volume of tweets and Google Search Volume Index (SVI) were found to be leading price indicators for Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to a research paper published by the Southern Methodist University.


The importance of sentiment

In the paper, researchers gathered data on Twitter mentioning Bitcoin and Ethereum; the same was done using Google trends. Building on the ideas of previous research, the hypothesis was that the number of tweets and their sentiment (positive and negative) can influence prices. In the study, it was uncovered that the number of tweets and Google searches changes first before prices do.

The role of sentiment in technical or market analysis is to uncover people’s attitudes towards an entire market or individual index (in this case Bitcoin and Ethereum). The theory of sentiment analysis is a branch of technical analysis that states that price discounts everything, and that price trends are ultimately a reflection of crowd psychology.

Therefore, in theory, if you could measure how positive or negative the people’s shared views are towards a particular stock or cryptocurrency, you could estimate its price trajectory.

Although in this particular study, tweet volume, and not sentiment, was found to be a leading factor in the price of cryptocurrencies. The lack of sentiment being the leading factor was theorized due to the amount of “noise” there is on Twitter about the currencies compared to actual conversation.

For instance, the researchers found that there 21 million bots on Twitter posting mostly factual information about prices, advertisements, spam etc. Not humans having real discussions about how they feel about either Bitcoin or Ethereum.

The other issue that researchers found with Twitter was that sentiment was mostly positive in nature — even when the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum were falling.

People who tweet about cryptocurrencies even when their prices drop have an interest in them beyond investment opportunity making the tweets biased towards positive.

Despite their findings, the researchers did not completely rule out sentiment analysis using different modeling techniques.

Methodology

In the study, researchers used to open source VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and Sentiment Reasoner) for analyzing tweet data. Tweet data was taken dating back to 2014 using the site bitinfocharts.com. Google trends data (SVI) was taken as far back as 2004 scaled in the terms proportion to all searches on all topics for the terms Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Results

For the Google trends data, the report found that the price was highly correlated with searches for the keyword Bitcoin and Ethereum, and that these search spikes occurred before the actual increase in prices were observed.

Another strong correlation between Twitter and Bitcoin’s price was found, except this time with more compelling results.

Finally, using machine learning, the results from the Google trends and tweet data was also put into a linear model to verify the positive correlations. The data was split between a training model and testing in an 80% and 20% split.

Social Media Helps Monitor Investor ‘Chatter’

The VADER data could provide some valuable data for investors in gauging market sentiment.

Previously, Bitcoinist has covered the importance of social media chatter on Twitter before with tools such as the ‘Twitter Hype Index.’ But this is the first time that Twitter and SVI data has shown to lead, and not follow, the prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies.

Can social media data provide valuable trading insight? Share your thoughts below!


Images via Shutterstock

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Pro 16

Gab Says Bitcoin is The Clear Solution as ‘Free Speech Money’

Censorship-free social media platform, Gab, took to Twitter to proclaim the gospel according to Bitcoin. Describing the grandaddy of cryptocurrency as “free speech money,” it pledged to educate its near million-strong community.


The Next Evolution Of Online Payments

In recent tweets, Gab calls for the next evolution of online payments, in the form of un-censorable money. This must take payment processing online out of the hands of a small number of gatekeepers. Touting Bitcoin as “the clear solution,” Gab cites Silicon Valley’s inability to de-platform it from using the cryptocurrency.

Gab sees its role now as being to make Bitcoin easy to purchase and use. Something it says it can (and will) achieve with enough education and time. Gab:

We aren’t doing it because it’s hip or cool or the latest technology fad. We are doing it out of necessity.

All well and good, but Gab is hardly the first to the ‘championing of Bitcoin’ table. What does it think it can bring with it which is different?

A Community Of Almost A Million People (And Growing)

Taking a clear swipe at what it calls “vaporware crypto startups,” Gab mocks their relative lack of interest from users. Despite raising tens of millions of dollars, these startups cannot match Gab’s highly engaged community, according to the tweets.

Gab claims its users have been “put through the ringer for years,” for standing by its mission of delivering free speech. It adds:

Bitcoin is inherently pro-liberty and pro-freedom. It is free speech money. Gab has the distribution to introduce it to a huge and growing community.

A million people doesn’t sound all that impressive though, next to over 35 million authenticated users, already using cryptocurrency. And it’s rather telling that Gab chose Twitter to spread its message, rather than its own platform.

No Room At The Inn

Gab’s championing of Bitcoin comes on the back of its recent banning from PayPal. Despite this, Gab starts the tweet-storm praising PayPal’s achievements in initially breaking down barriers to online payments.

Ironically, Gab has repeatedly found itself de-platformed, often as a result of its refusal to de-platform those who have been barred from other major platforms. This has led to a reputation as a haven for hate speech.

Despite this latest missive, Gab has not always had the smoothest of paths regarding Bitcoin. Earlier this year, it had its Coinbase account closed without warning. This led it to describe centralized exchanges as “cancer,” and “contradictory to everything crypto stands for.”

The social media platform has since switched to the self-hosted BTCPay Server solution, reducing its dependence on third-party payment processors such as Coinbase and BitPay.

Gab now claims it “…has the power and community to reverse the current bear market. That’s not an understatement.”

Holding your breath while waiting for that to happen is not, however, recommended.

Will Bitcoin be increasingly used by de-platformed entities? Share your thoughts below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

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Srp 05

Square Cash Quietly Reveals It’s Avoiding Public Cryptocurrency Exchanges

In its recently published quarterly report, Square revealed it’s channeling Bitcoin trades from its Square Cash application to private brokers instead of public exchanges.


Jack Dorsey’s Square Cash application enabled Bitcoin purchases and sales for most users early in 2018, adding to its consumer payments suite. Though overall, Square’s profits are substantial, it’s not making a fortune on Bitcoin trades just yet. Square reported just $400,000 profit on $37 million worth of revenue from Bitcoin for quarter two, 2018.

Square hasn’t announced that it has moved to over-the-counter (OTC) trading services for its Bitcoin transactions. The published quarterly report instead quietly revealed that Square “purchases bitcoin from private broker-dealers,” to facilitate Bitcoin trades for users of the application.

Why Over-the-Counter?

There could be a number of reasons behind Square’s choice, firstly it could protect Square from some of the Bitcoin price volatility seen on public exchanges. Sudden large sellouts from weighty Bitcoin owners and market “whales,” move Bitcoin’s price far quicker than on OTC desks. Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares told CNBC:

Working with a broker likely gets Square better pricing and better execution services than floating orders on the open market, as well as more confidentiality.

Secondly, the company could be looking to avoid some of the security issues and hacks associated with public cryptocurrency exchanges. Private brokers and OTC services may also be providing Square with faster Bitcoin transactions while at the same time hiding Square’s market activity from competitors.  

Square Cash App

Potentially, the move also gives Square more visible compliance from its use of institutional style trading facilities. Square has yet to comment on the matter.

OTC Bitcoin Trading Increasing

A recent study by TABB Group, if accurate, shows that OTC trading of Bitcoin may have overtaken daily Bitcoin trading volumes on public exchanges. Certainly larger trades of Bitcoin by millionaire investors and institutional investors moving over, along with Bitcoin associated enterprises, may be fuelling OTC service demand.

TABB Group puts OTC trading of Bitcoin at $12 billion dollars worth per day, but the study has been refuted by some. According to statistics from coinmarketcap.com daily trading of Bitcoin via public exchanges is around $4.3 billion.

What do you think an increase in OTC Bitcoin transactions means for cryptocurrency markets?


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Bitcoinist archives

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Dub 04

India Becoming the ICO-Marketing Hub for Crypto Platforms

· April 4, 2018 · 3:00 pm

India may be most well known for its Taj Mahal and Golden Temple. However, it is gaining a reputation in the crypto community as a place to find an extremely affordable provider of marketing services.


Marketing can be expensive, whether in-house services or outsourcing. In the fast-moving crypto world, it will also help in determining how successful your ICO will be. This in itself is a multi-billion-dollar industry, with, according to The Times of India, almost $3 billion being raised last year.

Having similar features as the good old crowdfunding business model, ICOs first rely on making their target market aware of their platform’s services before getting them to part with their hard-earned cash or crypto. This is where the marketing part comes in, and it also seems that this is where Indian marketing agencies are coming in too.

A Different Way of Marketing

More and more crypto platforms are outsourcing their ICO-marketing needs to predominantly Indian agencies. Not only do they offer a cheaper choice, these firms are also using apps like Telegram and crypto-industry-specific platforms to market these ICOs. This is quite significant as it means that these start-ups won’t have to deal with the recent bans by Google and social media giants, Facebook and Twitter.

However, even without the bans, Salim Ali does not believe that these big corporations are the way to go anyway. Ali is the CEO of Loyakk, a “blockchain-powered enterprise relationship management platform”, with an upcoming ICO. He said:

Facebook and Google AdWords hardly generate demand (for ICOs). Only a person new to the space would be googling about it.

Growing Business

Growing Business

Karnika Yashwant is the CEO of Key Difference Media, a Chennai-based marketing agency. He had this to say:

Two or three months ago, there were only a few platforms that helped in advertising. Now, a company going for an ICO will have a few hundred proposals from new marketing companies that are sprouting in India.

Yashwant has provided marketing services for 14 ICOs, most of which were led by European clients.

Saving Money

In addition to crypto community groups on Telegram,  ICO clients usually also choose to advertise through a range of crypto websites. In the case of the latter, Yashwant added:

For a banner in a cryptomedia website, you’d have to dish out $10,000 a week.

This is a hefty sum, but usually payable in fiat or virtual currency. However, even though an ICO could net millions, platform founders could be looking to save money in the initial stages, which could be why the more affordable option of Indian agencies could be so alluring.

What do you think of crypto platforms using cheaper Indian marketing agencies for their ICOs? Let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, DepositPhotos

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Kvě 11

Bitcoin Price Stagnates, What Happens Next?

Source: bitcoin

Bitcoin coins

This week has witnessed tension in the world of Bitcoin. For the most part, the currency has been on a relative bull run since this price observance series began. Users witnessed a bit of a drop amidst worry regarding claims made by a certain Dr. Wright, but afterwards, the price found its way back on the rise.

Also read: Bitcoin is Back: Price Rises Nearly $15, Returns to $460

Bitcoin Price Movement Slows Down

For the first time in a while, bitcoin has hit a bit of a stagnant position. With a $4 drop at press time since our previous price piece, it’s safe to say that not much is in the works, and those of us who recently experienced terror or fear are taking this as a potential moment to ease the adrenaline in our systems and enjoy some much-needed relaxation.

Right now, the sentiment regarding where the price will go next appears to be split right down the middle, with some confident it will explode in its trek up north, and other feeling the coin is destined for a spill. YCombinator president Sam Altman, for example, believes bitcoin is about to enjoy a particularly high note in what he feels will be a glorious future. The Silicon Valley entrepreneur explained on Twitter:

“I am currently the most bullish on bitcoin I’ve been, and all my bitcoin friends are the most bearish. Hmm.”

Others, however, feel the strains of positivity leaving their mindsets. As one source states:

“The market is struggling to make a new high since last week. Could this be the final push to resistance? At the time of writing the push has not produced a new high (since last week) in any of the exchange charts… Traders would be prudent to wait for the market to either establish trade above the resistance zone – or below the rising trend line support – before opening a position.”

The lack of certainty regarding bitcoin has got some of us sitting on edge. By now, however, we should be completely aware that bitcoin is not always predictable, and could change at virtually any moment. The simple fact is that if we haven’t gotten used to this, it’s probably time to turn away and never look back. But many of us refuse to do so simply because our trust for bitcoin is there and refuses to leave. Sure, certainty is never an option, but those of who deal in bitcoin on a regular basis are fully aware of the safety, independence and other benefits it wholeheartedly offers, and we can only stare upon bitcoin’s future with wide, proud eyes and see a large, luminescent glow emerging from the end of the winding tunnel.

Do you foresee a drop a rise in the btc price price? Post your comments below!


Images courtesy of leaprate.com.

The post Bitcoin Price Stagnates, What Happens Next? appeared first on Bitcoinist.net.

Bitcoin Price Stagnates, What Happens Next?

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