Pro 09

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Bounces But Bears Still in Control

Bitcoin price just pulled off a nice 10% bounce with the next level of resistance at $3,700. Let’s take a look at what can happen next?


Bitcoin Price: Market Overview

Bitcoin price 00 dropped to a new yearly low at $3,210 and the overall market cap now rests at $110.6 Billion. Clearly, bears are still running the show for BTC and the SEC’s  final postponement of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund decision didn’t seem to help.

Crypto-fanatics will now need to wait until January 24th for the launch of Bakkt and February 26th for a final approval or denial of a Bitcoin ETF from the SEC. If the cryptocurrency markets’ trend reversal is dependent upon either of these events then we’ve got a long way to drop waiting on the unpredictable outcomes of each of these events.

4-HR Chart

Bitcoin 00 broke below the $3,550 and $3,400 supports and the cryptocurrency will likely mean that $3,700 will post a stiff resistance to overcome. However, at press time, BTC price has managed to break above the $3,600 mark and now looks poised to test $3,700.

The bounce from $3,210 to $3,615 was pleasant and seems to have caused shorts to cover, but bulls couldn’t muster enough follow through to maintain the move and BTC’s failure to cross above any of the overhead exponential moving averages show bears are still running the show.

This is also backed up by the extremely high number of shorts on BTC/USD and the fact that they snapped right back into place after yesterday’s bounce.

BTC Shorts

After taking a glance at the daily and weekly RSI, Stoch, and MACD there’s not much positive to say about BTC short-term future. Perhaps the silver lining of all this will be that the bears are uber-confident right now and an all-time high amount of shorts can be forced to cover (like yesterday) when Bitcoin pulls off a 10% bounce.

In the past, Bitcoin has shown a propensity for weighty 20%+ rallies. A strong upside move would force shorts to cover and provide rapid gains for those trading BTC at the current range.

Daily RSI / Stoch / MACD

Weekly RSI / Stoch / MACD

Monthly Chart

Now for a dose of reality. If bears don’t let up, BTC can drop to 3,000, $2,545, and $1,400.

Safe trading friends and please remember to always use a stop loss. More cautious traders might want to wait until Q2 and Q3 of 2019 in hopes of a trend reversal.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by Bitfinex. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin will go over the short-term? Share your thoughts in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Trading View. Market data sourced from Coinbase.

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Pro 07

‘Buffett Bet 2.0’ – Investment Fund Puts $1M on Bitcoin to Outperform S&P 500

Asset manager, Morgan Creek Digital, is offering an interesting wager if anyone is willing to take it. It’s willing to bet $1 million, that its Bitcoin-focused Digital Asset Index Fund outperforms the S&P500 over the next ten years.


Buffett Bet 2.0

The fund tracks ten major cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, although the bulk (78%) is Bitcoin. Morgan Creek is so sure of their success, that the partners are putting up the stake themselves.

The wager has been dubbed ‘Buffett Bet 2.0’, after a similar bet made by Warren Buffett, that the S&P500 would outperform a selection of hedge funds over a ten year period. Buffett won that bet, collecting his prize just last year.

Morgan Creek partner, Anthony Pompliano, says the plan is to donate the proceeds to charity, win or lose.

Cold Winter

The bet comes at an interesting time, as Bitcoin (BTC) 00 and other cryptocurrencies are enduring a prolonged crypto-winter. However, US stocks have also fallen recently, due to a number of concerns over global outlook.

Pompliano explained that the company was not just being bullish on crypto, but that its competition was also not exactly at an all-time high.

This is a combination of our outlook not only for the upside of cryptocurrencies but also the outlook on public equities.

Bad Form

Morgan Creek had better cling to the mantra of ‘past performance is not indicative of future results,’ however. The last big bet on Bitcoin is just weeks away from losing.

A call option costing $1 million was placed on a bitcoin price of $50,000 at the end of last year. Following a year which saw the price move from $1000 to $20,000, that may have seemed like a safe bet. However, for the contract to be worth anything now, Bitcoin must see an increase of almost the same magnitude in just three weeks.

Let’s hope that Morgan Creek Digital has stocked up on rabbit’s feet, horseshoes, and four-leaved clovers.

Earlier this year, an Australian investor tried to make a $6.3 million bet with Berkshire Hathaway, that Bitcoin would top its share price by 2023. It’s not thought that the famously crypto-skeptic company took him up on the offer.

Who will win the bet? Share your prediction below!


 Images courtesy of Shutterstock

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Pro 06

Where Will Bitcoin Price Go as It Nears November Lows?

The Bitcoin price was hovering near its lowest levels in 14 months December 6 a fresh downturn continued to take its toll on investors.


Another Grim Day For Bitcoin Traders

Having lost support at $4000 Tuesday, 00 slipped further towards lows set last month around $3500, reaching $3680 before appearing to claim new support at $3700.

In common with behavior which has prevailed since the Bitcoin Cash contentious hard fork November 15, altcoin suffered similar and often worse losses, led by Bitcoin Cash itself.

The troubled asset, which split into two rival chains following the forking event, was trading at its lowest price ever Thursday at just $118.

BCH00, which has come to refer to the BCH ABC chain of Bitcoin Cash favored by Bitcoin.com owner Roger Ver and Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu, has consistently performed the worst out of the top twenty cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Rival chain Bitcoin SV00, by contrast, was showing rare strength at press time, extending its inverse correlation with BTC.

ABC’s woes have increased this week after rumors Wu’s Bitmain had sustained Q3 losses amounting to around $740 million – the company’s worst ever result.

Eyeing ‘Final Capitulation’

For Bitcoin itself meanwhile, commentators appeared displeased yet undisturbed by the latest dip.

In an analysis on December 2, technical guru Willy Woo produced his latest mid-term forecast for BTC, which forecast a “final capitulation” followed by a decisive end to the 2018 bear market should Bitcoin hit its current levels.

“…We can expect more range bound sideways action, followed by final capitulation, and an end of the bear market earlier, around Q1 2019,” he wrote on Twitter, adding in a subsequent comment:

If capitulation has indeed happened then we would be in an accumulation phase right now. But the key signs of this have not happened.

What do you think about the Bitcoin price? Let us know in the comments below!


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Lis 30

Max Keiser Interview: Bitcoin Will ‘Gobble Up All Fiat’ and Rise Over $100K

Bitcoinist once again caught up with the one and only Max Keiser, Wall Street veteran and host of the Keiser Report. He explains why he isn’t fazed about the Bitcoin price drop, why he pays no attention to ICOs, and why Bitcoin will be around longer than humans. 


‘Bitcoin is the monetary black hole’

Bitcoinist: Since we last spoke in April, Bitcoin has taken quite a tumble in USD price and has had a pretty bad 2018 overall. Why did price drop? 

Max Keiser: The Bitcoin protocol is genius and the more you understand it, the more clarity you achieve. With this in mind, let me answer your questions.

The Bitcoin price got way ahead of itself and we saw a typical pullback. Since I first started buying BTC in 2011 at $1, I’ve seen a few of these.

Many are predicting a prolonged ‘crypto winter’ similar to 2014-2016. Do you see it lasting two years like last time or is it different this time?

The long-term chart is fine. It’s still bullish. Keep in mind, my cost basis is under $200. 

Are we seeing the end of ICOs? Or will they just morph into STOs and become compliant with SEC regulations?

We have given virtually no attention to ICOs because, as I’ve said on my show, ICOs are securities and fall under the regulatory jurisdiction of the SEC. As a former Wall St. stockbroker, I am trained never to try and second-guess the SEC.

When tech bros approach me with their opinion about how the SEC should rule, and what the SEC “doesn’t understand,” I laugh. I’ve seen it all before over my 30-year career. Human nature never changes. Insta-wealth makes people think they’re bulletproof.

Why do you think Bitcoin has been seemingly coupled with stock market performance recently with tech stocks in particular?

Good question. I think the market sees Bitcoin as a ‘risk on’ asset, so it moves in unison with stocks. At some point, the market will understand that Bitcoin, like Gold and cash, is a ‘risk off’ asset. When the market realizes this, we’ll see ATH as safe-haven, capital flight money moves into Bitcoin. 

In September, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the highest since April 2008. You ’ve said many times on your show that “you can’t taper a Ponzi scheme.” Are we in for another financial crisis?

We never left the financial crisis. The number of zombie banks and zombie corporations has increased, masked by Fed money and accounting tricks like leveraged stock buy-backs. The dislocations and malinvestments have steadily increased.

The social metrics (in the US) like infant mortality and life expectancy continue to fall apart. The ravages of the 2008 GFC continue to debase our economy and society, but not for folks over at CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, etc., so the truth never gets reported.

How do you think Bitcoin would behave in conditions similar to the ’08 crisis today? 

The long-term trend is intact and will continue its upward path. 

What are your thoughts on the soaring LocalBitcoins volumes in Venezuela? Why is Bitcoin useful for Venezuelans?

Against the Bolivar, Bitcoin, and Gold have had incredibly powerful upward moves. Only using the $USD to map BTC’s performance and impact is shortsighted and misleading.  Think global.

Petro

Can national ‘cryptocurrencies’ like Venezuela’s ‘Petro‘ compete with Bitcoin?

No. Too centralized.

What do you think of Bitcoin Cash’s so-called ‘hash war‘ that we’ve just witnessed?

The protocol has rejected these bad actors. This is what Bitcoin maximalism is all about. Understanding that only Bitcoin has the power to create a fiat-free world while simultaneously destroying all that get in the way. 

What’s the biggest threat to Bitcoin in your opinion?

Bitcoin is the monetary black hole that will gobble up all fiat and rise to more than $100,000 doing it. But humans themselves may never see that day.

I have more faith in BTC than I do in humans surviving the ecological holocaust we’ve triggered with our collective stupidity. Bitcoin might only be used by our robot successors. Ironically, they don’t care about price.

Do you agree with Max Keiser? Is Bitcoin a monetary black hole for fiat? Share your thoughts below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

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Lis 23

Google Trends Bitcoin Interest Hits 6-Month High

Google trends Bitcoin interest hit its highest since April this week as BTC price has taken a beating in the past week.


Google Trends ‘Bitcoin’ Interest Hits April Bull-Run Levels

You know what they say: any publicity is good publicity.

The latest data from Google Trends confirms the uptick in curiosity about Bitcoin after BTC/USD 00 dropped 30 percent under circumstances commentators have yet to fully understand.

The proportion of searches for ‘Bitcoin’ is higher now than during any weekly period since April 8, at which time its price began a major surge from $7000 to closer to $10,000.

Interest in some related terms, such as ‘is Bitcoin dead’ and ‘HODL,’ was much more apparent, reaching its highest since February this year, when the price was trending down from all-time highs around $20,000.

While mainstream media publications often pick up on price decreases as an indicator of the ‘risk’ involved in Bitcoin investment, the impact of price movements on broader public awareness contributes to the opinion held by many commentators that ‘any publicity is good publicity.’

Searching For A Trigger

As BTC price has historically correlated with search interest, a reversal of the current bull market is high on the agenda for traders.

That reversal had been tipped to occur in December with the launch of the first “regulated ecosystem” for cryptocurrency, Bakkt. When executives announced they would delay the launch from December 12 to January 24, prices had already begun to tumble and forecasts of a reversal get pushed back.

New York Stock Exchange Owner to Launch Bitcoin Data Service

At press time, support for BTC/USD 00 had held at $4000, while few professional traders were eyeing a true flip to bullish territory in the mid-term.

Even for the most optimistic regular voices such as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz and Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee, a return to form for Bitcoin depends on institutional investors getting a taste for available products; without Bakkt or its slated competitors, the status quo remains.

What do you think about Google Trends Bitcoin interest? Let us know in the comments below!


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Lis 21

Bitcoin Hashrate Drop Sparks Rumors of $3.8K Miner ‘Turn-Off Price’

The drop in Bitcoin hashrate has sparked rumors China has turned off huge numbers of mining rigs as the process is no longer profitable.


‘More Economic To Turn Them Off’

Video and photo content which allegedly came from F2Pool owner BitFish hit western social media November 20, being uploaded by local news feed cnLedger and Primitive partner Dovey Wan.

“…Many miners are mining at loss at the current price point, now it’s more economic to turn it off and take it off from the rack to reduce cost on electricity and opex,” Wan explained.

Bitcoin price 00 continues to suffer after a week of price losses which saw its value against the dollar drop around 30 percent. At press time Tuesday, BTC/USD hovered at $4400.

According to Wan, the “turn off price” for mining in China with a Bitmain Antminer S9 rig is approximately $3800, but will adjust down if difficulty and competition also drop.

Factors such as China’s dry season forcing up hydroelectricity costs exacerbated the problem, she said, adding that “some top mining pool owners” had admitted operating at a loss for several months.

F2Pool subsequently released its own list of mining price cut-offs, urging miners to check to ensure they were “running in profit.”

Fake News Allegations Abound

Due to much of the source material originating from Chinese social media, western Twitter commentators were quick to pour scrutiny on the claims, many calling out Wan and cnLedger for allegedly spreading “fake news.”

The material showing miners lying in piles outside was from the Sichuan Province floods, which knocked out many rigs in June, they claimed, nonetheless failing to reproduce the video or photograph from other sources.

Data from Blockchain meanwhile confirms the hashrate drop in Bitcoin, which has reversed to levels last seen in August.

Bitcoin hashrate

The turnaround marks a rare occurrence for the network, which has gotten used to the gradual increase in hashing power, particularly over the past year.

Ongoing attempts to divert miners to Bitcoin Cash in an effort to shore up one of its chains post-hard fork continue.

What do you think about the drop in Bitcoin hashrate? Let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, blockchain.info

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Lis 19

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will $5k Hold or Are Bulls Being Led to Slaughter?

Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) had a dire week, breaking down last Wednesday from its 2018 consolidation reaching weekly lows of $5200. 


This week started no better with new lows being found after a further selloff at around $5050. Here we take a look at some of the immediate levels trades and investors alike worth paying attention to.

Bitcoin Price: Daily Chart

Bitcoin‘s resilience sustaining prices around $5500, gave up on Monday as the wider trading environment kicked off the week, with markets pushing BTC price 00 down to test $5000.

As the market attempts to adjust to the breakdown, many are trying to work out where the bottom may be. Here we look at a few of the scenarios being contemplated by investors and traders alike.

Weekly Chart

The lows of August – 2015 August 2017 uptrend converges with the lows of the 2018 downtrend around $4400-4800.  There is a distinct lack of historically traded volume between $4800 and $5500, which may explain why the market is currently falling through the current price range with minimal resistance.

Traders may look to this price range for a bounce, marking a 75% discount from December 2017 prices and a psychological level for both buyers and short covering.

A break and close above previous support at $6,100 would signify some confirmation of a longer term bottom.

2015 Bottom

The 2015 bottom was found at the top of the 2012-2013 trend.  If the same is applied to 2019 it again suggests $4800 region may be a significant level of support.

The most bullish scenario that can be presented is that this down move is being induced by a large player tempting sell volume to the market, which was lacking around $6,000, in an attempt to make a large, longer-term buy and hold position.

This kind of trading is known as a fake out trap to run stops and create liquidity to build such a large opposing position, but it really the only hope short-term players have in this market resuming an uptrend.

$3k – A Comparison to 2015

Looking at 2015 the bottom was found resting alongside the 200MA, currently trending towards $3200, which is where the bottom of the volume range currently resides.

This level is where the market last witnessed significant volume, bouncing the market back to $4350 within two weeks.

It is likely that a number of market participants who took profits from above this level, or from those that sold here historically and had to endure the run up to 20k will happily re-enter the market on an 85% retracement

Bitcoin Cash Hashing War

Hashing power has been diverted from the BTC network to provide support to the Bitcoin Cash ‘hash war,’ which goes some way to undermine the network security for Bitcoin.

Game theory in Economics and as applied here, works on the basis that individuals are incentivized with their resources to do what is best for themselves and the group, which in this case would be to mine the more profitable Bitcoin chain, however, there is currently an uneconomical war being conducted meaning that the marginal profitability from mining is being ignored in the quest for dominance over the BCH network.

Its unclear how this war of attrition using SHA 256 resources is directly impacting Bitcoin price, but it would be reasonable to assume that it is not positive to the outsiders looking in and until there is liquidity to dump the opposing chains coins, they will need to use their Bitcoin to provide working capital to cover the marginal cost of production.

The probable outcome is that the losing miners will revert their hash and capital back to the BTC network once a winner has been found.

In Summary, Bitcoin 00 looks likely to continue its downward momentum from here, testing the low volume price ranges, with the closest one closing around $4800, however, the strength of the hands of the Hodlers will be tested.

A large engulfing candle supported by significant volume is the only thing which the bulls want to order from the menu, but where that will occur remains to be seen.

Does Bitcoin price suggest it is now a buyers market? Where is the bottom? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.


[Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView. Images courtesy of Tradingview, Shutterstock.

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Lis 14

Bitcoin Price Hits 2018 Low Amid Cries of ‘Capitulation’

Bitcoin price finally broke through $6,000 support, falling as low as $5,500 with the price still volatile at press time.


Bitcoin Price Hits 2018 Low

As Bitcoin (BTC) price has flatlined as of late, one could say that it was a welcome sight to have some action and volume. The bad news, however, for those long BTC price was that same $6,000 support that held all year finally broke.

Bitcoin price 00 hit as low as $5,550 USD on Bitstamp amid ongoing volatility. This is the lowest price since October 2017 and a record low for 2018.

The drop-off may have been expected, however. Bitcoinist recently reported on the waning interest from traders amid record low futures volume and money velocity. And despite a string of recent positive news for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, such as forthcoming on-ramps for Wall Street and increasing profits for businesses, the Bear market seems to be tightening its grip.

Bitcoin price today

Capitulation?

Meanwhile, notable industry figures such as cryptocurrency investor Barry Silbert called the record drop in price “capitulation.” Others also pointed out how the current record low RSI index for BTC/USD charts has historically been a signal for an upswing.

Admittedly, several factors that could potentially reverse the bearish momentum before the end of the year are still in place. However, all eyes will now be on BTC price 00 as the boring flatline period appears to (thankfully?) be over.

Are you long or short Bitcoin price? Where will the bottom be? Share your thoughts below!


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Lis 13

Stock Market Slump Could See Bitcoin Price ‘Make New All-Time High’

Cryptocurrency inventor, fund partner and advocate Max Keiser is predicting new all-time Bitcoin price highs as the stock market tumbled again this week.


Bitcoin to ‘New All-Time High’ as Stock Market Slumps

A drop in share prices for both Goldman Sachs and Apple has equated to an approximately 160-point loss for the Dow Jones November 12, leading Keiser to suggest the index could collapse to below the significant 10,000 barrier in future.

“10 (years) of cash transfusions from central banks – masking the globe’s economic death in 2008 – hasn’t worked,” he wrote on Twitter.

“Dow 10,000 here we come. (Bitcoin) will make new (all-time high).”

The Dow last saw 10,000 during the banking crisis a decade ago, having hovered around 25,000 for most of 2018.

Anticipation Of Crypto Awakening Grows

While Keiser like many other well-known commentators has long heralded a return to form for Bitcoin price 00, cryptocurrency markets have yet to signal their bear market is over this year.

As Bitcoinist has frequently reported in recent months, the anticipation of institutional investor money buoying sideways prices continues to run high. Major crypto assets themselves, however, continue to trend slowly downwards.

Big money remains faithful to the optimistic narrative on Bitcoin, however. Last week, billionaire investor Tim Draper took to the stage at Europe’s largest fintech conference Summit 2018 to double down on his prediction the largest cryptocurrency would hit $250,000 per unit by 2023 at the latest.

He was joined by Blockchain wallet CEO Peter Smith and Managing Capital co-founder Garry Tan. While both stopped short of endorsing the quarter-million figure, there appeared to be unanimous agreement that Bitcoin would be worth more in USD terms by this time next year.

“…My prediction for $250,000 by 2022 – maybe 2023 but in that range – is absolutely solid, but I’m not so sure how we’re going to get there,” Draper said.

What do you think about Max Keiser and Tim Draper’s predictions? Let us know in the comments below!


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Lis 09

Bitcoin to $250K by 2023 Prediction is ‘Absolutely Solid,’ Says Tim Draper

Serial cryptocurrency investor and billionaire Tim Draper has said his Bitcoin price prediction of $250,000 by 2022 is “absolutely solid.”


Draper: Destination Clear, Path Uncertain

Speaking during the giant Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon which ended November 8, Draper, who is well known for his optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, in particular, doubled down on his price forecast few others have dared rival.

“I have a pretty good sense of what’s going on four, five, six ten years from now because that’s my business – to meet with young entrepreneurs who are putting a future into my mind,” he told a panel which also featured Blockchain CEO Peter Smith and Managing Capital co-founder Garry Tan.

…My prediction for $250,000 by 2022 – maybe 2023 but in that range – is absolutely solid, but I’m not so sure how we’re going to get there[.]

Cryptocurrency became an increasingly focal topic at this year’s Summit, which with almost 70,000 attendees constitutes the largest such conference in Europe.

Smith’s Blockchain, announcing a partnership with payment network Stellar at the event, has begun giving away $125 million in the latter’s Lumen tokens in a bid to increase awareness and adoption of cryptoassets.

‘Just Go Do It’

While touching on different aspects of how the industry should grow in future, both Smith and Draper agreed on the need to continue placing financial sovereignty in users’ hands.

“Why we aren’t all… creating Bitcoin, putting together a wallet – just go do it so you get the feel for it because it’s so much better than what we have today,” Draper told the audience.

All three panelists, with varying degrees of reluctance, meanwhile agreed that BTC/USD 00 should trade higher this time next year, Smith additionally confirming he was still accumulating bitcoin.

Anticipation of an end to what Tan among many others referred to as the “crypto winter” continues to run high across the community, with markets yet to provide hints of an imminent end to bear market conditions.

Tan added he was uncertain whether the ‘winter’ would be over by the end of 2019.

What do you think about Tim Draper’s price prediction reiteration? Let us know in the comments below!


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