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Bitcoin Price Has Maximum $22K Potential By End Of 2018, Says Tom Lee

Bitcoin could end 2018 at $22,000, Fundstrat Global Investors analyst Tom Lee repeated in new predictions about the end of the cryptocurrency bear market October 19.


Lee: 200-day MA ‘Very Important’

Speaking during an interview with social media blog Crypto Tips, Lee, who is known for his bullish stance on Bitcoin in particular, highlighted the 200-day moving average price trend as a key factor in determining its future performance.

“When Bitcoin’s below its 200-day, it only goes up 50 percent of the time in the next sixth months, but when it’s above its 200-day, it’s up 80 percent of the time,” he said referring to analysis produced by Fundstrat last week.

“The 200-day and the trend that’s implied by that is obviously very important.

Ethereum ‘Capitulated’?

Far from a continuation of this year’s price downturn, Lee added he thinks it is “more likely” that Bitcoin 00 would put in an unexpected climb.

That hypothesis runs counter to assumptions shared by many other analysts within the cryptocurrency industry, who have endorsed an idea BTC/USD must first ‘bottom’ as low as $3000 before finally challenging its all-time highs.

For Lee, $6000 is the “floor.”

“Where can the surprise take place? I know a lot of people think Bitcoin’s price will collapse to $3000; I think what’s more probable a surprise is that we have a very explosive increase in price,” he continued.

For Ethereum (ETH) 00 meanwhile, Lee also saw support returning to markets. The largest altcoin by market cap had fallen more precipitously than Bitcoin, at one point trading as low as $170 in recent months, its worst performance since May 2017.

“…Ethereum is already trading like it’s capitulated,” he said.

In 2018, a combination of factors including the EOS ICO, ICOs in general, BitMEX’s ETH futures and media “hitjobs” had created a “negative” story around the asset.

What do you think about Tom Lee’s predictions? Let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Bitcoinist archives

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Říj 02

Fundstrat Says ‘Bullish Trend’ to Develop in Coming Months

The bullish trend isn’t going to be for at least a few more months, according to a technical expert from Fundstrat Global Advisors. He holds that time is needed for the market to recover the technical damage developed through the year.


Bulls Will Have to Wait

At the time of writing this, Bitcoin (BTC) 00 marks a slight decrease of less than one percent for the last 24 hours. The market’s leader also managed to stand its ground for the last week as.

However, having peaked at around $7,400 earlier in September, the cryptocurrency trades about 13 percent below its monthly high.

According to Rob Sluymer, though, an analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, bulls will have to wait for a while. In a recent note to clients, the technical expert outlined:

Given the technical damage that has developed in 2018, we expect most cryptocurrencies will likely require months of repair before a new bullish trend can develop. […] This is consistent with post-bear-market behavior that has developed in other asset classes following bear markets.

bull

A Bit More Positive

Earlier this month, the Head Analyst and Managing Partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, expressed his positive sentiment on the price of Bitcoin, based on CBOE Global Markets’ intention to launch Ethereum future contracts. Lee said:

Since December of this year, if one was bearish on any aspect of crypto but did not want to own the underlying, they could short BTC. They can now short ETH, means the net short on BTC in futures would fall.

Ethereum (ETH) 00 marks a slight weekly decrease of about 3 percent. In the last 30 days, however, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency is down with around 23 percent.

What do you think of Rob Sluymer’s position on the current state of the cryptocurrency market? Don’t hesitate to let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Kvě 12

Bitcoin to Reach $64,000 in 2019, Based on Mining Economy, Says Fundstrat

· May 11, 2018 · 7:00 pm

Based on analysis of the bitcoin mining economy, the world’s most well-known cryptocurrency could reach as high as $64,000 USD by the end of next year.


Bitcoin Miners Do the Selling

According to independent research boutique Fundstrat, which provides market strategy and sector research, the bitcoin mining boom could potentially send the dominant cryptocurrency by market capitalization to upwards of $64,000 USD by the end of 2019. States the company’s head of research, Sam Doctor, in a report:

We believe the current path of hash power growth supports a BTC price of about $36,000 by 2019 year end, with a $20,000-$64,000 range.

Bitcoin is infamously volatile, creating FOMOers and naysayers on what feels like a weekly basis. Nevertheless, Fundstrat believes the economics behind bitcoin mining create key support levels — since bitcoin miners are less likely to sell their rewards during market downturns, and more likely to cash out during bull runs. Explained Doctor in a conference call to CNBC on Thursday:

The primary net sellers, in our view, are bitcoin miners, and the rest are transactions between investors.

Fundstrat has estimated that the current cash break-even price Antminer S7 models is $6,003 USD per bitcoin. The newer and more powerful Antminer S9, however, features a much lower break-even point at $2,368 USD. Both popular pieces of bitcoin mining hardware are manufactured by Bitmain, which boasted an operating profit between 3 billion USD to 4 billion USD in 2017. Doctor said:

The release of the next generation of rig hardware should trigger a new round of capex as well as hash power growth, which could accelerate if BTC price appreciates.

According to CBNC, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee is the only major Wall Street strategist to cover Bitcoin.

Lee previously predicted last July that Bitcoin may reach $20,000 to $55,000 by 2022. At the time of that prediction, bitcoin was trading at $2,540. Lee also noted that bitcoin could become a viable substitute for gold.

Do you think bitcoin can reach upwards of 64,000 USD by the end of next year? Do you think the miners’ break-even point is indeed a key support level? Be sure to let us know what you think in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Bitcoinist archives, Twitter/@fundstratQuant, Twitter/@@fundstrat.

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Dub 06

$25 Billion Owed in Crypto Taxes Causing ‘Massive’ Selling, Wall Street Analyst Says

· April 6, 2018 · 3:00 pm

‘Massive’ selling of cryptocurrencies into fiat by mid-April to be expected, as U.S. crypto holders ‘likely’ owe $25 billion in capital gain taxes according to Tom Lee, head of Fundstrat Global Advisors.


Tom Lee, the former chief equity strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase is amongst the few, if not the only Wall Street analysts who are providing regular thoughts and analysis on Bitcoin and the overall state of the crypto market.

Pressure Rises as Deadlines Approach

As the mid-April tax filing deadlines approach, Lee says that cryptocurrency selling pressure rises. In a report for CNBC, the analyst says that he estimates an approximate $25 billion being owned in capital gain taxes for cryptocurrency holdings by U.S. Households. And that’s the ‘low estimate’.

As the tax day approaches, we could witness ‘massive’ selling of cryptocurrencies into U.S. dollars.

Lee explained:

This is a massive outflow from crypto to USD and historical estimates are each $1 of USD outflow is $20-$25 impact on crypto market value.

Going further, the expert believes that selling pressure is also being piled up by crypto exchanges.

Many exchanges have net income in 2017 [of more than] $1 billion and keep working capital in Bitcoin or Ethereum and not in USD — hence, to meet these tax liabilities, are selling BTC/ETH.

Taxes are No Joke

In late March, the IRS reminded that virtual or digital currencies are taxable by law just as transactions of any other type of property. The taxman also went on reminding that steep penalties are in for those who fail to properly oblige by mid-April’s tax day.

While administrative cash penalties and interest are awaiting low-key crypto investors for failing to report their taxes, those who deal in larger quantities definitely have a lot more on the line to worry about, according to the release from the IRS:

Criminal charges could include tax evasion and filing a false tax return. Anyone convicted of tax evasion is subject to a prison term of up to five years and a fine of up to $250,000. Anyone convicted of filing a false return is subject to a prison term of up to three years and a fine of up to $250,000.

Yet, a recent poll in twitter held between more than 7,500 people revealed that 53% of them aren’t really worried about taxes on the premise that “They’ll never catch me”.

What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market?

Tax-related selling would certainly add to the tough start of the year for Bitcoin. Yet, Tom Lee and other proponents remain positive.

When asked about Lee’s previous prediction of Bitcoin’s price, the analyst maintains his full-fledged positivity:

“We’re still positive. The important trends to focus on crypto are that there’s a lot of underlying progress, adoption is still growing,” adding that “Ultimately, we expect bitcoin to find footing after April [17], tax day.”

Do you think the price of Bitcoin will be affected by mid-April’s tax deadlines? Please let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Bitcoinist Archives; Pixabay

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Bře 21

Altcoin Bear Market ‘Over’, Bitcoin ‘Less Miserable,’ Tom Lee Declares

· March 21, 2018 · 1:30 pm

Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee has declared the altcoin bear market “is over” and urged investors to buy Bitcoin.


Tom Lee: Investors ‘More Comfortable’ With Bitcoin

In a note to investors which he followed up live on CNBC’s Fast Money segment, the firm’s head of research said investors were becoming “more comfortable” with Bitcoin as an asset.

Cryptocurrencies began rallying this week after the ongoing G20 Summit produced positive regulatory noises from the outset.

Tom Lee

“I think the headlines were less draconian than many people were worried about, but that’s really been the case every time there’s been a regulatory event,” Lee told CNBC.

The reality is I think Bitcoin is starting sit away from the line[…] I think investors are comfortable that Bitcoin is likely to viewed as a commodity; whether regulations change around security tokens and registration, Bitcoin sits in its own sphere.

Bitcoin Misery Index Perks Up At $9k

Altcoins had felt the pressure from Bitcoin’s downward trend, showing a delayed response after BTC/USD began falling late December but with many assets subsequently falling more steeply.

According to observations from Lee and his team, this trend bottomed out around March 20, and could now point to new upside, subject to a similar delay to the initial descent.

“The altcoins don’t really rally until mid-August, mid-September,” he forecast, adding that ‘altcoin’ for Fundstrat meant cryptocurrencies outside the top 50 by market cap.

In terms of buying Bitcoin, however, Lee hinted now was the time. Using his Bitcoin Misery Index, which Bitcoinist previously reported on earlier this month, he told viewers that Bitcoin’s score was still within the ‘buy zone’ below 27 out of 100.

At the time Lee issued the index, that score was just 18. “It’s still in the zone of misery, but of course it’s less miserable,” he added.

Lightning Network Is Happening! First Physical Item Purchased on LN

Technical upgrades such as a Lightning Network production beta last week have contributed to broader positive sentiment on Bitcoin meanwhile, with Weiss upgrading its rating for the cryptocurrency from C+ to B-.

BTC/USD was holding support around $9000 on major exchanges as of press time March 21.

What do you think about Tom Lee’s altcoin forecast? Let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, CNBC.com

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