Bře 24

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bears Look to Trap Bulls Into Weekly Close

Table of Contents

As the Bitcoin price weekly candle draws towards a close for the week we take a look at what the performance over the week looks like going into the final week of March.


Bitcoin price: 4-HOUR CHART

Looking at the4-hour chart, we can see that the bitcoin price has spent the last few days oscillating around the weekly opening price of $3965, with the bears continually attacking this level.

The MACD has broken through it zero line having turned bearish on the dump from the weekly highs at over $4056 all the way down to $3920, which along with a generally downward trending MACD implies that the bears are in control going into Sunday evening, however the bulls have proven to defend the weekly candle in the last two weeks of asking.

Should the bears want to define the weekly candle, the mid-week lows of $3920 will be the target, whereas the bulls will want to close above the weekly open of $3965.

1-DAY CHART

A look at the 1-Day Chart shows that bitcoin price is showing signs of struggle to complete the Adam and Eve and Inverse head and shoulders classical charting patterns, which would imply an upside target between $4800 and $5200.

Failed moves typically lead to fast moves, so if BTC cannot break back to test the $4,000 and loses the weekly lows, the 50 and 100 DMA at $3780 and $3730 respectively will be the first line of defense for the bulls. These levels have acted as support since Mid-February when they turned from resistance and into support.

WEEKLY CHART

With only a few hours remaining, the weekly chart shows that bitcoin price is still being capped by the center line of the Bollinger Bands, which is the 20 week moving average.

Should BTC manage to hold the mid $3900s, bitcoin will open the final week of March above the 20 WMA will be for the first time of 2019. It is clear to see that a more definitive move is on the brink of occurring with the pinch of the 200 WMA and the 20 WMA being clearly defined on the chart.

The weekly MACD will print a fifth green bar on the histogram and continues to trend upwards, but has some way to go before it crosses its zero line and is in bullish territory.

BITCOIN SENTIMENT

Looking at sentiment in the Bitcoin market, we can see that the Bitcoin September Futures contract at Bitmex is currently trading around $40 below the spot price, meaning that the expectation of the market is that BTC prices will be lower moving forwards.

This of course presents an opportunity for the bulls who believe the opposite to be true. So they’ll be able to pick up bitcoin at a discounted rate. But this would be against market expectation and the discount is to be expected in a bear market environment.

The Long/Short ratio at Bitfinex has crept higher in contrast to the futures movement, and is now up at 1.18, which has room to manoeuvre higher towards where it usually tops out around 1.5 if there is a break to the upside.

The longs and shorts total open interest at Bitfinex is down to 44k BTC – down from nearly double that in Dec-2019. This implies that there are speculators awaiting the bigger move to commence before taking on any risk in the market, which further supports the idea the next move will be a sharp one.

Overall, bitcoin price remains locked in a bear market and is grinding on upwards in an encouraging fashion. But the bulls must take control of the market in the final week of March as the 20 week moving average continues to suppress the price.

Trade Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC) and other cryptocurrencies on online Bitcoin forex broker platform evolve.markets

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView.

The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com

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Pro 25

Japanese Yen Set to Surpass US Dollar in Bitcoin Trading

The U.S. Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) are the two most dominant national currencies used in Bitcoin/fiat trading. But while the USD has always dominated the market, it appears BTC/JPY may now be on the verge of overtaking the dollar.


Most Bitcoin/Fiat Trades Denominated in USD or JPY

The USD is in many ways the de facto global currency for business and trade. It is the most popular currency in the forex market, and as such, it is no surprise to find that BTC/USD 00 is one of the most commonly used trading pairs.

According to the cryptocurrency market indexing platform Coinhills, BTC/USD accounted for more than 48 percent of all Bitcoin/fiat trades over the last 24 hours. JPY comes as a close second with more than 47.23 percent of all such transactions within the same time frame.

Japan Needs to Have Stricter Exchange Regulations According to Monex

Together, both account for 95.87 percent making them by far the most popular fiat currencies used in BTC trading. The popularity of the BTC/USD pair isn’t exactly surprising given that Tether (USDT), the most popular stablecoin in the market is pegged to the USD.

Based on Coinhills’ data, JPY is becoming a firm favorite for Bitcoin traders. Back in November, Bitcoinst reported on a study by Cryptocompare that showed a 50 percent dominance for USD in the BTC/fiat market. At the time, JPY accounted for only 21 percent. Though it is important to note that Coinhills’ data covers only 24 hours. The research by CryptoCompare was for the whole of November 2018.

Meanwhile, Bitcoinist reported last week that Asian markets tend to have a bigger impact on BTC price than the US and Europe, according to cryptocurrency research firm Mosaic. If the trend holds, Japan, in particular, could give the USD a run for its money when it comes to fiat trading pairs. The land of the rising sun is known for its crypto-friendly laws and embracing BTC commerce with major retailers accepting bitcoin both at brick and mortar stores and online.

BTC/KRW Surprisingly at Two Percent

Leading the rest of the minor currencies is the Korean Won (KRW), which accounts for two percent. Data from the CryptoCompare study put the BTC/KRW trading pair at 16 percent of the Bitcoin/fiat market.

The figures from Coinhills might indicate a cooling off of trading activity in the Korean market. Between October and November 2018, BTC trading to KRW dominated the fiat spot trading for the top-ranked cryptocurrency. Sometimes, the BTC/KRW pair accounted for about half of all daily Bitcoin fiat spot trading.

Other lesser traded fiats include the Euro (EUR), the Polish Złoty (PLN) and the Russian Ruble (RUB). These account for 1.35 percent, 0.15 percent, and 0.11 percent, respectively. Outside of the Americas, Europe, and Asia, the most popular BTC/fiat pairs are the South African Rand (ZAR – 0.03 percent) and the Australian Dollar (AUD – 0.03 percent).

Do you think the Japanese Yen can upstage the U.S. Dollar as the dominant BTC/fiat trading pair? Share below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock and CryptoCompare

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Pro 09

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Bounces But Bears Still in Control

Bitcoin price just pulled off a nice 10% bounce with the next level of resistance at $3,700. Let’s take a look at what can happen next?


Bitcoin Price: Market Overview

Bitcoin price 00 dropped to a new yearly low at $3,210 and the overall market cap now rests at $110.6 Billion. Clearly, bears are still running the show for BTC and the SEC’s  final postponement of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund decision didn’t seem to help.

Crypto-fanatics will now need to wait until January 24th for the launch of Bakkt and February 26th for a final approval or denial of a Bitcoin ETF from the SEC. If the cryptocurrency markets’ trend reversal is dependent upon either of these events then we’ve got a long way to drop waiting on the unpredictable outcomes of each of these events.

4-HR Chart

Bitcoin 00 broke below the $3,550 and $3,400 supports and the cryptocurrency will likely mean that $3,700 will post a stiff resistance to overcome. However, at press time, BTC price has managed to break above the $3,600 mark and now looks poised to test $3,700.

The bounce from $3,210 to $3,615 was pleasant and seems to have caused shorts to cover, but bulls couldn’t muster enough follow through to maintain the move and BTC’s failure to cross above any of the overhead exponential moving averages show bears are still running the show.

This is also backed up by the extremely high number of shorts on BTC/USD and the fact that they snapped right back into place after yesterday’s bounce.

BTC Shorts

After taking a glance at the daily and weekly RSI, Stoch, and MACD there’s not much positive to say about BTC short-term future. Perhaps the silver lining of all this will be that the bears are uber-confident right now and an all-time high amount of shorts can be forced to cover (like yesterday) when Bitcoin pulls off a 10% bounce.

In the past, Bitcoin has shown a propensity for weighty 20%+ rallies. A strong upside move would force shorts to cover and provide rapid gains for those trading BTC at the current range.

Daily RSI / Stoch / MACD

Weekly RSI / Stoch / MACD

Monthly Chart

Now for a dose of reality. If bears don’t let up, BTC can drop to 3,000, $2,545, and $1,400.

Safe trading friends and please remember to always use a stop loss. More cautious traders might want to wait until Q2 and Q3 of 2019 in hopes of a trend reversal.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by Bitfinex. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin will go over the short-term? Share your thoughts in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Trading View. Market data sourced from Coinbase.

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Zář 16

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Are Oversold Bounces Leading the Market Higher?

Bitcoin is making a slow and steady recovery toward $7,000. Has bearish market sentiment alleviated? Or, are the current gains simply the result of a market-wide oversold bounce?


On Thursday, BTC broke through the $6,450 resistance and proceeded to reach a weekly high just shy of $6,600. This was prior to a  brief pullback to $6,400. The weekly chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) 00 about to set a higher low. After last week’s break from this pattern, a few more weeks of higher lows will be required to determine if a trend change is in order.

4-Hour Chart

Since pulling back from the weekly high ($6,597), BTC has been continuously rejected near the 200-MA ($6,612). Up til this morning, a pattern of lower highs continued as the RSI and Stoch began to descend from overbought territory.

Since pulling back from the weekly high ($6,597), BTC has been continuously rejected near the 200-MA ($6,612). Up until this morning, a pattern of lower highs continued as the RSI and Stoch began to descend from overbought territory.

These frequent rejections at $6,530 are a result of a lack of bull volume on each attempt and if BTC were to fall below $6,414 (20-MA) and $6,358 (50-MA and most recent low) then a revisit to $6,270 could occur.

BTC needs to overcome yesterday’s high and proceed to take out the 200-MA, which is also aligned with the 38.2% Fib retracement level at $6,623.

A more convincing move would be for BTC to gain to the midway point ($6,780) of last week’s drop from $7,400 as this would place BTC above the 100-MA and the 38.2% Fib retracement level.

Daily Chart

BTC did manage to close above the 10-day MA and while the overhead moving averages are still angled downward they have begun to flatten.

BTC did manage to close above the 10-day MA and while the overhead moving averages are still angled downward they have begun to flatten. The RSI is climbing mid-channel through a neutral zone and the Stoch is lifting from near oversold territory.

Yesterday’s doji candle shows a degree of indecision. Fortunately BTC went on to post a higher low not shown on chart.

1-Hour Chart

The 1-hour chart shows BTC repeatedly pulling back from $6,570 and $6,550 and each pullback has dropped BTC price from the upper arm to the mid-channel.

The 1-hour chart shows BTC repeatedly pulling back from $6,570 and $6,550. Each pullback has dropped BTC price from the upper arm to the mid-channel. Then similarly below the 10-MA of the Bollinger band (set at 10, 1, 9).

The 20 and 50-MA should serve as short-term supports. However, the move into the lower BB arm and the sharply dropping Stoch and RSI mean BTC could pullback slightly as it continues to consolidate throughout the day.

Projections

BTC is well situated for short-term gains but remains biased toward bears given the lack of follow-through from bulls after frequent rejections and positioning of the moving averages on the daily and 4-hour chart.

BTC 00 needs to overcome the 200-MA ($6,612) and there is resistance at $6,710 where the 100-MA is situated.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin price will go this weekend? Let us know in the comments below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com

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Zář 12

Bitcoin Price Analysis: How Long Will $6000 Support Hold?

Bears remain fully in control of Bitcoin price, yet somehow, the $6,000 support is holding…for now.


Bitcoin Price: 4-Hour Chart

After posting a daily high at $6,460, bitcoin price fell below the wedge formation and constant rejections at the 20-MA have kept BTC 00 in the pattern of lower lows.

Eventually, a bear flag formed and BTC continues to lose the hourly uptrend after every bull break so traders should either hold their powder or place tight stops in order to avoid being trapped by fake outs.

The drop below the ascending trendline was the $6,117 support but the overall scenario remains overwhelmingly bearish.

Granted the bears do have the ball and the 4-hour chart shows higher lows being set throughout the day and a bullish divergence on the RSI does inspire a smattering of hope. However, earlier today the 50-MA dropped below the 200-MA and all of the other short-term moving averages are crossed below the long-term MAs and BTC trades close to 2018 lows.

BTC needs to move above the daily high at $6,460 (slightly above the 23.6% Fib retracement) and the 200-MA at $6,573 which is an area that will likely provide stiff resistance.

While more downside is likely, BTC does have support at $6,180, $6,122, $6,000 and $5,900.

BTC appears to be consolidating into a tighter range but still struggles to move above the 20-MA. The bullish divergence in the RSI throws mixed signals as the Bollinger bands constrict, but low buy volume and the consistent failure by BTC to move above the daily high (red line) suggest a move to the downside.

Of course, we would love to see otherwise but the recent bearish cross of the 50-MA below the 200-MA make the possibility of such an outcome less likely.

Daily Chart

Looking Ahead

BTC 00 appears to be on a path to $6,000 unless the technical setup changes or a bullish media story can shift sentiment. One can only hope that a move below $6,000 will lure buyers and produce a nice bounce or better yet, a trend reversal but at this point, this is nothing more than wishful thinking.

A bullish divergence can be seen in the 4-hour RSI but all other indicators are bearish so try and curb your enthusiasm.

BTC needs to move above the daily high at $6,460 (slightly above the 23.6% Fib retracement) and the 200-MA at $6,573 in order to garner buyers’ interest.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin price will go this weekend? Let us know in the comments below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com

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Zář 07

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Picking Up the Pieces

Let’s be honest, unless you’re short, yesterday was catastrophic. Bitcoin was just shy of breaking $7,500 and taking the rally up another leg then unexpectedly plunged 13% and now we’re below $7k, again…


Bitcoin Price Market Overview

Prior to the dump, Bitcoin price BTC/USD 00 was experiencing continued rejections as it approached $7,400 but who would have known the pullback would be this severe?

Ideally, after a 27%+ run, consistent rejections signal that bulls are running out of steam and a pullback to say $7,300 – $7,100 would be sensible as lower highs and rejections function as a profit taking signal for some.

On deeper reflection, there were some external signals that something was amuck. A wallet address rumored to be connected to the Silk Road mysteriously awoke after a nearly 4-and-a-half year long nap to quietly distribute 11,114 BTC to Bitfinex, 4,421 BTC to Binance and 210 BTC to BitMEX.

Reddit user Sick_Silk believes that this Silk Road connected wallet contains roughly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and funds from a number of Bitcoin forks.

Add to this the occurrence of a $70 million short position being initiated last week and Tether’s recent repeat of a $100 million dollar USDT infusion to Bitfinex, and things certainly begin to look a bit funky.

So as Q-Tip would say, “What’s the scenario?”

Daily Chart

BTC was on the verge of escaping the long-term descending triangle at $7,500 and now trades below the 100-MA and 55-EMA. Fortunately, $6,300 – $6,200 have held and a dip below $6,000 seems less likely as the Stoch is already deeply oversold and a corrective rally to $6,650 could occur. Had BTC managed to climb above the descending trendline, a rally toward $8,300 might have occurred.

4-Hour Chart

BTC formed a double bottom at $6,308 and a previous support at $6,537 now serves as resistance. At the moment it appears that $6,500 is standing as a psychological resistance. We can expect resistance at the 20-MA and the 200-MA which nearly aligns with the 38.2% Fib retracement level. Furthermore, the 20-MA is en route to crossing below the 100-MA at the 50% Fib retracement level ($6,857).

Basically, barring some fantastic news like Coinbase purportedly working with BlackRock to develop a Bitcoin ETF or an unexpected spike in bull volume that triggers a $1,000 short-squeeze, we can expect BTC to encounter resistance at the overhead moving averages and previous supports (dotted lines) will likely function as resistance.

It is also likely that BTC shorts have added to their positions as BTC rejects at $6,500. In other words, the road to recovery could be rather challenging for BTC.

BTC-USD-SHORTS: Daily Chart

Looking Ahead

In the absence of market-moving news, BTC is likely to follow the pre-rally pattern of rejecting at the overhead moving averages on the 4-hour chart. Currently, the Stoch and RSI remain in oversold territory and investors should watch the weekly chart at the last higher low is $7,429.

Bitcoin has now given up 2.5 weeks worth of gains and is unlikely to close above $7,429, which makes the possibility of a bear break more likely than the inverse scenario.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin price will go this weekend? Let us know in the comments below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com

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Zář 04

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bull Breakout or Bearish Reversal?

Bitcoin is working hard to overtake the $7,300 mark. However, the holding aspect that has proven problematic.


Bitcoin Price Market Overview

Bitcoin continues to reject at $7,300 even though it has staged a few inspiring pops above the $7,300 resistance. After a nearly 27% gain over the past two weeks, cooling off and consolidation isare expected. The pattern of higher lows has consistently been re-established after each pullback from $7,300. Add to this the fact that there is a range of other positive signs which show BTC is well situated at the moment.

4-Hour Chart

Add to this the fact that there is a range of other positive signs which show BTC is well situated at the moment.

The weekly MACD (not pictured here) shows a bullish cross appearing on August 26th, while the 20-MA rises above all the longer term moving averages on the 4hr chart. The 100-MA recently crossed above the 200-MA — simply following the movement of the 5 and 10-hour EMA along with the ups and downs of the Stoch and RSI have provided easy trading opportunities for day traders.

Bulls have shown some signs of exhaustion as a closer look at the rejected pops above $7,300 shows that a series of lower highs, as well as the occasional higher volume spike above $7,320, is quickly rejected. This plunges BTC to the support zone around $7,270 to $7,250.

BTC now trades outside of the ascending channel. As shown by #1 and #2 on the 4-hour chart, each rejection at or above $7,300 has seen BTC return to $7,255 and $7,234. These have proven to be fairly reliable supports, but a move below $7,255 places BTC. This lies outside of the ascending channel, and $7,234 below the second ascending trendline.

Looking Ahead

In the event of a pullback, BTC has consistently found support at $7,250 and $7,332. $7,200 – $7,190 follow close by. 

The outlook for BTC remains positive. Still, the cryptocurrency needs to quickly surpass, and maintain control over, the $7,300 resistance. This would place BTC back into the ascending channel.

Trade sensibly!

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin price will go this weekend? Let us know in the comments below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com.

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Srp 30

Venezuela Shatters Bitcoin Trading Records With 500,000,000 Bolivars Per Week

Trading between Bitcoin and the Venezuelan Bolivar (VES) has beaten all records to pass 500 million for the first time last week.


7 Days, Half A Billion Bolivars

Data from Coin Dance, which tracks volumes on P2P platform Localbitcoins, confirms that the seven days ending August 25 saw BTC/VES achieve volumes never seen before.

The results come the same week Venezuela revalued the bolivar to create the new Sovereign Bolivar, lowering the currency’s value by 96 percent in the process.

For the week, Localbitcoins processed 506.3 million VES, a figure which dwarfs the previous all-time high of 175.8 million seen the week before.

In Bitcoin terms, the figure was also the highest ever, at 1143 BTC.

The Venezuelan government has come under extensive criticism for rolling out its Sovereign Bolivar project, which is tied to its national cryptocurrency Petro. As Bitcoinist reported, both Petro and the VES have received broad votes of no confidence, sources describing the latter as a “scam on top of another scam” last week.

Following conversion day August 20, the government in the meantime has even released a dedicated app to help citizens calculate how much money they actually own.

Rampant hyperinflation, which Caracas claims the new currency will help calm, is contributing to the confusion and ever-decreasing purchasing power of ordinary Venezuelans.

Government Clampdown ‘Will Affect’ Bitcoin Users

While Bitcoin has been gaining popularity in line with the deteriorating economic situation, the latest decisions by authorities appear to be fuelling interest and uptake.

Venezuela: Record Bitcoin Buying Spree Continues Amid Hyperinflation

As Purse.io head of support Eduardo Gomez, who is a Venezuelan national, noted on Twitter August 27, citizens traveling abroad will now have to notify banks of their intention to leave the country. This, according to documents, is a result of the government forcing them to reveal the IP addresses of those who access their banking setup from abroad.

“Many Venezuelans who live outside the country use their national bank accounts to send money to family members and to purchase local currency from traders by selling USD,” Gomez commented.

“Bitcoin users will be directly affected by this. Many (Localbitcoins) traders live outside the country.”

What do you think about Venezuela’s trading volumes? Let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

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Srp 29

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is This Yet Another Sucker’s Rally?

Bitcoin price has been on a rather pleasant run as of late and a move above the ascending channel would make this unexpected treat a little bit sweeter as a path towards $7,500 and above could open up.


Bitcoin Price Market Overview

This current rally has everyone feeling all bullish lately and even a small group of select altcoins are feeling the love. Question is, did BTC actually reach a bottom and reverse or is this just another one of those $1,000 green candle teases that eventually leads to a sharp reversal and revisit to prices below $6,000?

Let’s have a quick look at the charts to see where BTC 00 might go.

1-Hour Chart

Bitcoin price is confidently bullish for the short-term, though a move above the ascending trendline grows more urgent in order for BTC to maintain its current pace. BTC has pulled back from its daily high at $7,127 and appears to be consolidating from $7,000 to $7,100 which was to be expected as the RSI and Stoch spent most of the day bouncing around in overbought territory.

The 5-hour exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 10-EMA and a drop below $7,000 would not be surprising as a mild pullback after rapid gains is typical.

In the event of a pullback, BTC is likely to rebound back to today’s range as the cryptocurrency remains in the ascending channel with the longer term moving average below as support. Furthermore, the RSI and Stoch have room to fall and accommodate a pullback to $6,875 before reversing course.

4-Hour Chart

The recent upside move brought BTC 00 above the 200-day MA and the 20-MA is on the verge of crossing above the 200 MA while the 50 and 100-day MA have already crossed. Despite a slight pullback from today’s high ($7,127) BTC continues to consolidate within the ascending channel and while volume has tapered off BTC is well situated.

While the pattern of higher lows has fragmented, it is preserved on the daily chart and will remain so as long as the BTC stays above 6,568.

Looking Ahead

Barring a drop below the ascending trendline at $6,864, BTC could extend to the top of ascending trendline at $7,350 over the short-term.

A sharper pullback to $6,875 would not be surprising and bulls are likely to buy the dip in anticipation of a quick bounce back above $7,000.

BTC will encounter resistance at $7,128, $7,165 and $7,490. In the event of a reversal, BTC will find support at $6,877, $6,711 and $6,566. BTC has spent the day bouncing off softer supports at $7,000, $7,030 and $7,050.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think Bitcoin price will go? Let us know in the comments below! 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com.

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Srp 19

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Welcome to ‘Bitcoin Purgatory’

Bitcoin seemed on the verge of a breakout above $6,650 but a failed third attempt, followed by a lack of buying interest has given bears an opportunity to snatch back control and it looks like BTC has dropped a shelf for a bit of sideways trading in the $6,200 – $6,400 range.


Bitcoin Price Market Overview

Earlier this week on CNBC Fast Money, host Melissa Lee described the narrow channel between $6k and $7k as ‘Bitcoin Purgatory”. Guest speaker and head of Digital Assets group at Susquehanna International Group, Bart Smith, said “Bitcoin is in show me mode” as the cryptocurrency market currently seems resistant to trend changes driven by good news and positive developments for cryptocurrencies.

Smith believes investors are searching for verifiable proof that the market has turned bullish before setting up positions, hence the sporadic spikes and trend of declining volume for bitcoin.

It seems the entire market is contingent on the SEC’s approval or denial of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) but there are a select few who advise caution against placing all one’s hopes in the approval of such an ETF for a variety of reasons.

Meanwhile, the world, or at least Americans, were introduced to a new Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note (ETN) from Coinshares subsidiary, Tracker One. This provides US investors with a listed (regulated) vehicle to invest in bitcoin via their US brokerages without carrying the burden of needing to secure coins, register on various cryptocurrency exchanges, pay the premium that Greyscale adds or worry about exchange hacks and re-compensation.

4-Hour Chart

BTC 00 completed the inverse head and shoulders formation but a decline in volume followed by a few failed attempts to cross the daily high set at $6,644 lead to BTC eventually collapsing below the bullish trendline and the 55-EMA and 20-day moving average.

At the time of writing, the RSI has worked its way down from bullish territory and BTC appears to have dropped down a leg to last week’s trading range from $6,200 – $6,400.

A pattern of lower lows and lower highs has begun and BTC’s drop below the 55-EMA and 20-MA could resurrect the pattern of rejection at overhead moving averages that has plagued BTC since the drop from $8,500.

A positive note is BTC rides right along the 50-MA and the Stoch has already entered oversold territory, but the RSI continues to slide down below 50 and continued descent could take BTC along with it.

The 55-EMA and 20-MA have been flat since August 16 and the constricting bollinger band indicator could be indicative of further range bound trading even though BTC has dropped back to last weekend’s trading range.

The bollinger band on the 4-hr chart is really starting to tighten up but simply waiting for further constriction may not be sufficient enough proof of an upside move as the Stoch, RSI and bull volume are descending. Currently, BTC trades in the lower band below the 20 simple moving average so traders may be forced to hold tight for an oversold bounce if or when the RSI slips to the twenties.  

A glance at the weekly chart shows BTC 00 in the process of setting a lower low on the daily chart and the RSI is fairly close to dropping below the ascending trendline of this week’s earlier divergence.

Below the 50-MA at $6,313, BTC has soft support at $6,230, $6,137 and $6,000. In the event of a drop below $6,300 to $6,200, BTC has a relatively strong support at $6,100.

Looking Ahead

A drop below the inverse head and shoulders neckline could prove problematic, as would a drop below the $6,300 support but BTC has shown relatively consistent support at $6,300 and $6,100.

Multiple low volume bounces off the $6,350 support point to declining interest from buyers and BTC could drop to $6,200 and below if the RSI continues to descend as bulls weakly defend the $6,300 support.

A move above the inverted head and shoulders neckline ($6,500) followed by a pop above $6,650 (100-MA) would be encouraging.

A move to the key resistance at $6,800 would place BTC above the 38.2% Fib retracement level and back above the descending trend line.

Depending on technical indicators, $6,100 – $6,200 could be an attractive entry point for range traders.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Where do you think the price of Bitcoin this weekend? Let us know in the comments below!


Images courtesy of Tradingview.com, Shutterstock

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